The way Tie Domi sees it, the Maple Leafs had better treat each of their final 25 games as a playoff game or they won't have to worry about playing in the post-season.
In fact, it may already be too late for the sliding Leafs, who will have to play much better down the stretch than they have for the first three quarters of the season and hope the other contenders for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, particularly the Montreal Canadiens, falter.
"Nobody has to tell us that," Domi said. "We know where we've been and we know we can't afford to make any mistakes. We want to play playoff hockey from the get-go and that's the way we have to play every game now."
The task is a daunting one, to say the least. Over the past five seasons, it has required an average of 87 points to qualify for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The figure could even be higher this season given that this is the first campaign in which teams gain extra points through the shootout. As it stands now, the eighth-place Canadiens are on pace for 88 points, the Leafs for just 85.
So, assuming it will take at least 88 points to make the playoffs in the East, the Leafs would need to earn 29 points in their final 25 games for a .580 winning percentage, compared to the .518 they posted prior to the Olympics. But there are other statistical factors conspiring against the Leafs, such as:
Thirteen of those games are on the road, where the Leafs currently have a 10-15-3 record.
Eighteen of the final 25 are against teams with records of .500 or better. The Leafs' record against plus-.500 teams currently stands at 17-22-5.
Three of those games are at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, where the Sabres could safely offer a Guaranteed Win Night. The plague that hits the Leafs once they cross the Peace Bridge has resulted in a 4-12-3 record since the Sabres moved into their new digs in 1996.
Two games remain against the Ottawa Senators, who have defeated the Leafs six times this season (twice in shootouts) and outscored them 36-12.
During a stretch between March 16 and 28, the Leafs play seven of eight games on the road, with all but one of them against teams over .500.
Hockey players being what they are, there was lots of happy talk about the Leafs' chances yesterday after the team held its second post-Olympic practice.
"I'm not one bit worried about our hockey team," Darcy Tucker said. "I think we have the guys in our dressing room to get the job done. We've gotten more healthy over the break and we have some guys having some good efforts in the Olympics who can provide something to the lineup that they're bringing to their hockey clubs over there."
And while defenceman Bryan McCabe and coach Pat Quinn won't come home from Turin riding a wave of success, the Leafs will be welcoming back at least two players with medals around their necks. With Tomas Kaberle (Czech Republic), Mats Sundin and Mikael Tellqvist (Sweden), and Aki Berg (Finland) all playing in semifinal games today, the only way there won't be a Leaf gold medallist is if Russia wins the tournament.
"It doesn't matter which teams you're playing against, if you go into a funk down the stretch here it's going to cost you a playoff spot," said Jeff O'Neill, who turned 30 yesterday. "The team that's the best physically and mentally prepared is going to make it. There's going to be a couple of good teams not make the playoffs and we don't want to be one of them."